With Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the tension which has long been building up between China and Taiwan is coming to fruition. In 1949 Chinese Communist Party leader Mao Zedong took control of Beijing, forcing the Kuomintang, the nationalist party of China, to flee to Taiwan and establish an independent nation in order to escape the horrors of the bloody Communist revolution. Since then, China has pressured other countries not to recognize Taiwan’s independence either implicitly or explicitly, and maintains that Taiwan is still under the authority of Beijing. While the CCP’s bullying tactics have met with mixed success, they have managed to keep Taiwan isolated from the support of many other nations and ensure Taiwan’s exclusion from the UN and NATO. The United States’ “one China policy”, for instance, does not recognize Taiwan’s independence, but maintains an unofficial relationship with them; selling them weapons and defense technology, as well as asserting their willingness to come to Taiwan’s aid if China initiates hostilities. Policies such as this have kept China at bay thus far, but Taiwan still lacks the necessary support to improve their situation, with only 20 sovereign states, including the Vatican, recognizing Taiwan’s independence. As a result the imperiled democracy has been lingering in their precarious position for the past 70 years. Now, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine may tip the scales against Taiwan.
The day before the Beijing Winter Olympics, Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping met and affirmed each other’s respective plans for expansion; Russia plotting against Ukraine and China with their sights set on Taiwan. As the war in Ukraine progresses, these two bastions of Communist tyranny have strengthened their foul alliance. The United States’ sanctions on Russia have led Vladimir Putin to increase trade relations with China, further solidifying their bond. Our nation’s growing track record of feckless, perfunctory support for imperiled nations may embolden China to escalate aggressions in Taiwan as they witness weak-willed politicians botching American foreign policy decisions.
In fact, China may already be poised to launch an assault on Taiwan. Leaked Russian intelligence purports that China intended to launch an assault on Taiwan as early as 2025. However, Russian information has historically been suspect, and Joseph Wu, Taiwan’s Minister of Foreign Affairs, said that he could not speak on the authenticity of these claims. Wu’s position remains the same though, whether this specific report holds true: “No matter if or when China decides to attack us, we must always be ready to defend ourselves.” Unfortunately, it seems difficult to imagine more than one outcome to a Chinese-Taiwanese conflict. China could easily overrun Taiwan’s military–their ground, naval, and air forces outnumber Taiwan’s by ratios of about 11:1, 6:1, and 11:1, respectively. As noted earlier, the minimal support which Taiwan has received over the past 70 years makes it uncertain whether any military power would rise to provide the massive military support which Taiwan would need to defend their country from the Communist invaders.
The ever-increasing threat of Chinese invasion of Taiwan poses a fatal risk not only to Taiwan, but truly to the entire world. The 14,00 square mile nation holds an incredible 65% global foundry market share in the production of computer chips–used in products ranging from cell phones to cars to guided missiles. The annexation of Taiwan would vastly increase China’s economic and military might, making the spread of Communist influence an even more serious threat. Additionally if China were to conquer Taiwan, their newly acquired territory could power the expansion of their Russian allies into Ukraine and beyond. To counteract this frightful alliance which we see developing, world powers must present a strong, united front. We must meet force with force; laying aside performative support measures of the past and begin taking strong action against this brewing Chinese-Russian superpower. We must make it clear that the free world is prepared to use whatever measures are necessary to counter the expansion of Communism’s evil influence into Taiwan and protect Taiwan’s integrity as an independent sovereign state.